Feeling jittery? This fund manager isn't

If you're feeling jittery about the markets, Kenneth Andrade has a calming cup of chai for you—and a few bold bets. The veteran fund manager and CIO of Old Bridge Mutual Fund has penned a note that's equal parts realism and reassurance.

First, the bad news (because you already knew it): The global macro environment is a mess. Andrade doesn't sugarcoat it. With high valuations, emotional investors, and a general "wait-and-watch" mood, there's little room for fireworks in stock prices. Indian equities, he admits, are pricey, and the big boys in corporate India are just sitting on their cash.

But then comes "Scenario Building - Our Take", a laundry list of what's going wrong in global trade—and how that might weirdly work in India's favour. Andrade predicts the US wants trade balance (not bans), tariffs may rise, demand might tank, and inflation could stick around. Grim? Not quite. As he points out, "higher inflation = higher end-product prices = better profitability" for producers. That's silver lining logic.

Then comes the kicker: "A Positive Spin on the Outcome?" Andrade suggests that as American firms start de-stocking, cash will be freed up, triggering a quiet capex boom in efficiency-led innovation. Don't expect factories to sprout overnight—but smarter machines? Probably.

From the India lens, Andrade gets bolder. India, with its vast market and demographic heft, looks too juicy for global players to antagonise. His take? We've been "treated with kid gloves - warned, not punished." (Take that, Vietnam and Mexico.)

And if you're wondering what this means for the Old Bridge portfolios, here's the gist: They're betting big on Indian companies that are "globally competitive, category leaders, and low-cost manufacturers"—not because it sounds nice, but because these firms are built for the long haul, with cash flows stretching into 2035. Andrade's team is steering clear of subsidy junkies and chasing real value: Indian firms that can thrive even if globalisation gets grumpy.

His final note to investors? Classic Kenneth:

"Buy when low."

No fancy jargon, no bravado—just a reminder that bear markets are where great portfolios are made. If you're nervous, that's okay. Just don't be absent.

In short: Let the world panic. India and your portfolio might just come out on top.

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This article was originally published on April 16, 2025.