Empowerment and self-confidence

I am not going to beat around the bush here. The goal of what I'm writing here on these pages is to show you, beyond doubt, that using Value Research Stock Advisor is the best way to choose stocks to invest in. Of course, I've been saying this since the launch of the service but now, more than ever, the point stands proven.

When there's fear, uncertainty and doubt in the market, then the resilience of our stock recommendations stands out very sharply. Even at this point, when the markets have been shaken up quite badly, the performance is quite good. We'll go into the logic later, let me just quote the raw numbers first to show you what I'm talking about:

• Of the 64 recommendations we have made, 44 are currently in positive while 20 are in negative.
• Of the positive recommendations, 12 have more than doubled your initial investments, while 19 have made it more than 1.5 times.
• Of the lossmakers, only eight have suffered a decline of more than 20 per cent.

Of course, it goes without saying that these numbers were actually much better in October 2021 when the markets were at their peak, but that's not my point today.

Moreover, even though I've started with bluntly laying down the numbers, there is a much greater value that members get from Value Research Stock Advisor, and that's the confidence in the choices that they are making.

So, let's step back a little and take a calm look at what exactly is happening in the equity markets. From the peak that they reached in October 2021, the Indian equity markets have now been declining for eight months, as reflected in the large-cap indexes. Gains made over slightly more than a year have been given up, with the Sensex down to a level that was first reached in May 2021. Of course, by these measures alone, this is not much of an equity crash, certainly nothing of the magnitude or the seriousness that we saw in 2001 or 2008. By any rational measure, the word 'crash' is (yet) not a suitable description for what is happening, at least on the Indian equity markets. By the standards of any of the past crashes that I have talked about, this is nothing, just a small blip. I'm not saying it can't get worse, but I believe the panic is being overdone for now.

However, as would be clear to anyone reading this page, the fear factor is somehow off the scale. Of course, there are genuine reasons to be apprehensive. The spectre of inflation in the US is a pretty large red flag.

Inflation →Higher interest rates →Tighter money →Weaker stock markets

This chain of cause and effect has started already and will run its course, not just for months but for years. How far will it go and how it will affect not just the markets but real businesses, it's hard to foretell.

Apart from these actual effects, there are psychological reasons too - the sudden impact of the Chinese virus and the war in Europe have made many people a little bit shell-shocked and generally apprehensive of the future. That's surely playing some role. The strange problem of Bitcoin and other cryptos, which is a novel phenomenon, is also having an unpredictable negative effect. Of course, I personally think that it's ridiculous to talk about crypto as finance but that's the way things are. As far as the psychology of many investors goes, the collapse of crypto is part of the same phenomenon. And to be realistic, given that the 'speculator pool' of crypto and stocks has some overlap, the two are related.

The real value
The real value of Value Research Stock Advisor goes much further than just recommending good stocks. Stock Advisor is a service that is not just about the recommendations but also confidence in those recommendations. To understand the real value of Stock Advisor to you, consider the following:
1. Now that stocks are falling hard, many investors have cut and run. Clearly, they feel that now that a stock has fallen, it may never rise again and their losses may become permanent.
2. There are others who are holding on, with the view that the fall is temporary and eventually their stocks will recover. They are reasonably confident of their investments.
3. Finally, there are those who are actually using the period of low prices to buy more of their stocks. They are the ones who know with full confidence what the stock is actually worth and use the decline to set the stage for future gains.

Think about which of the above describes your frame of mind best. Of course, there are other factors involved in which of these three behaviours an investor displays - for example, the degree of diversification in an investor's portfolio, or other aspects of their personal financial circumstances. However, in general, I have observed that those who are in any particular category tend to stay there, unless something happens and they gain confidence in their stock choices.

So, how is anyone to gain that confidence? That's where Value Research Stock Advisor comes in. It gives you not just a list of stocks to buy but their investment theses. More than that, our researchers and analysts keep re-examining the thesis and keep it updated and fresh, so to speak. Members get not just the 'what' but the 'why.' This is a long game and one in which you need all the help that you can get. That's the role of Value Research Stock Advisor. We don't pretend to take all the decisions for you - we are your research assistant team but our goal is to make you the investor.

Let me just recap what you get when you become a member:

• Access to all our (currently 53) stock picks
• Best Buy Stocks: 15 stocks selected from our recommendations. Use this set to start building your portfolio right away!
• The complete investment thesis for all recommended stocks so that you understand why you are investing
• New recommendations as soon as they are released
• Continuous updates and analysis on all recommended stocks straight from our dedicated analyst team
• Tools and data to research and analyse any other stock

We can't force anyone to use all this. What you get out of all this is what you make of it, but the most important parts being empowerment and confidence that your thesis is right and that you will stay in the third category of investors, as described above. Many investors make good choices but, in the ups, and down of the markets, they lose confidence and bail out too early. What we do is to give you all the inputs you need for you to maintain the strength of your convictions. A major part of our job is to keep in touch and support you during times when things are looking shaky.

All things said and done, recommendations are just that - something that we recommend you do. A lot of people give recommendations. The real achievement of Value Research Stock Advisor is that all those members are becoming real investors themselves and not just consumers of investment information. It's time for you to join their ranks.