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Road to recovery: Four turnaround stocks

We explore the top four stocks with consistently improving growth scores

4 top-performing stocks: Resilient businesses on the rise

dhanak हिंदी में भी पढ़ें read-in-hindi

Remember the first time you decided to ride a bicycle? You stumble and fall, but eventually, you learn to balance and pedal ahead smoothly.

The journey of a business is similar. Even the best of the crop hit rough patches and stumble. But true wealth creators eventually find a way to get back up and keep growing.

So, to look for such businesses that had stagnated in the past but are now showing signs of recovery, we used our Value Research Stock Ratings .

We considered companies that have consistently improved their growth scores in the past five years. Note that we considered only companies with a market cap of over Rs 500 crore.

The above landed us eight companies. To keep our focus on the best of the bunch, we considered only the top four companies that displayed the most significant improvement in growth ratings.

Here is the list:

Getting back up

Jindal Drilling & Industries gave a whopping 47 per cent annualised return in the last 5 years

Company M-cap Sector Growth rating in FY19 Growth rating in '23 Difference in rating 5Y CAGR return (% pa)
Indian Overseas Bank 81242.57 Bank 0.6 4.7 4.1 22.33
Jindal Drilling & Industries 2202.85 Crude Oil 3.5 7.6 4.1 47.05
Bank Of India 49828.95 Bank 1 4.7 3.7 4.12
MPS 2907.48 Media & Entertainment 3.6 6.8 3.2 28.63

So, the next question is how did they manage this turnaround. We dug deep into their finances, and here's what we found.

Company Factors that led to their turnaround Future outlook and risks
MPS
  • Smart acquisitions: It acquired seven companies in the past eight years. Each of them was a leader in their segment.
  • Growing digital consumption and the recent advances in AI/ML
  • The demand for digital solutions will help it keep the momentum alive.
  • However, over 90% of its revenue comes from outside India (50% from the US), exposing it to macro risks.
Bank of India
  • Improving asset quality: Its gross NPA improved from 15.8 % in FY18 to 5.8 % in September 2023 as it sold its bad loans to asset restructuring companies.
  • Diversification: It increased its share of MSME, retail and agricultural loans to 55 % in FY23 from 50 % in FY19.
  • Its efforts to diversify its loan book and improve underwriting should help it sustain the present momentum.
  • Asset quality will remain monitorable.
Indian Overseas Bank
  • Lower cost of funds: It increased its CASA (current account and saving account) ratio from 38.3 per cent in FY19 to 44.0 per cent in FY23, lowering its cost of funds and boosting profitability.
  • Better underwriting: Its efforts to improve its underwriting practices helped it lower gross NPAs from 22 per cent in FY19 to around 7.4 per cent in FY23.
  • It is actively trying to diversify its loan book and increase its share of MSME, agricultural and retail loans, which may improve profitability.
  • Deterioration in underwriting practice may lead to declining asset quality and net income.
Jindal Drilling & Industries
  • Lower crude oil prices: It operates offshore rigs. The cost of operating rigs is highly sensitive to crude oil prices. The decline in crude oil in recent years helped it improve margins.
  • Expansion: It has been scaling up its operations smartly, leading to higher earnings.
  • Crude oil prices are still at a comfortable level. Industry experts are also optimistic that prices will remain stable in the near term. However, volatility in crude oil prices due to adverse macro events may impact the company's margins significantly.

A word of caution

Investors should note that the above list of stocks are not investment recommendations. We arrived on the initial list of companies purely based on quantitative factors. A thorough analysis of the companies and the industry it operates is a must. Please do the due diligence before investing.

Also read: Why you should use Value Research Stock Ratings


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